Week 4 - Delphi Method Versus Nominal Group Technique

The Delphi Method and the Nominal Group Technique (NGT) are both techniques for achieving consensus within a group.  The Delphi method was created to make accurate predictions of the future while NGT was developed to prioritize issues within a group.  Both techniques are iterative in nature where the groups make initial assessments and then refine them as evaluations are shared within the group.  The Delphi Method can have closed collaboration where a single set of individuals work toward consensus or open collaboration where new people are brought into the evaluation as needed.

The techniques differ in some aspects.  The Delphi Method is usually used for longer term forecasting that is more abstract in nature and can take much longer to achieve consensus as team members share data sometimes via mail or email over a period of time.  NGT is usually used to achieve consensus within a couple of hours as team members quantify their opinions numerically (using for example sticky notes) and the values are ranked and summarized.  Sometimes smaller teams achieve numerical consensus and then these results are compiled into a larger group.

NGT participants quantify using sticky notes

I would use the Delphi Method to perform big picture forecasting where the subject matter is very broad and requires time to think and research the topic (Community and Economic Development).  Inherent in the Delphi Method is the social force.  Some people produce better answers when they are anonymous. As the topic begins to focus on certain technologies I would broaden the participation and allow open collaboration so that subject matter experts could be brought in to add to the discussion.

A force that would move me to use NGT is circumstantial and in this case the circumstance is time limitation.  NGT would be useful for things like course evaluations or problem solving within a small group where the problem is more narrowly focused so that consensus could be achieved in a short time frame.

References

Community and Economic Development. (n.d.). Modified Delphi Technique. Retrieved October 23, 2012, from University of Illinois: http://www.communitydevelopment.uiuc.edu/sp/ Step6/Delphi%20Technique.pdf

Floating Algae Pods

Earlier this year Jonathan Trent gave a talk on a proposed scheme to create energy using "floating algae pods."

Example Floating Algae Pod

 He notes that micro algae can produce anywhere from 2,000 to 5,000 gallons of fuel per acre per year.  This is in contrast to other agricultural methods that produce no more than 50 gallons in the same time frame.

One reason that the scheme has potential is that many waste water treatment plants are close to large bodies of water where they allow the waste water to empty into the water.  Instead he proposes to collect the waste water in membranes and allow them to float until the sun allows the algae to grow.  The algae would then consume CO2 and create oxygen and fuel.

There are two primary forces that affect whether this techonology will take hold; namely, environmental and economic.

He indicates that there is no danger of an environmental disaster because the worst that would happen - the bags could break and allow the waste water to escape - is what already happens now as it flows freely into the water.

There is doubt whether the method is economically viable where one needs to get more out of the system than is put into it.  He proposes using the floating membranes to host fisheries and other things to help with their economic viability.

The Internet of Things (week2)

The Internet of Things is is one of the emerging technologies that are expected to prevail in the four to five year timeframe as identified by the New Media Consortium. Now that IPv6 is taking over, the address space for items on the internet has greatly increased. This allows billions of devices to be directly addressed including miniature smart sensors and other devices. These devices can provide environmental sensing and device tracking among other benefits. Additionally other technologies such as Near Field Communication (NFC) allows for contactless communication between devices that are in close proximity.

(Picture created by myself using Visio)

The report claims that these devices do not need a power supply. This may be true in the sense that they get parrasitic power from the host systems that they are attached to, or possibly they contain battery power that allows them to operate for the desired mission life before the battery drains. Alternatively they might be getting solar power if the environment allows for it. But I believe that one limiting force in adopting the Internet of Things is technological and the power source is that limiting factor.

The second limiting force for adoption of the Internet of Things is cultural. People are becoming more accepting of pervasive technology with the use of electronic devices but having devices around every corner monitoring our lives may take longer to find acceptance because people still like privacy and may see the devices as an intrusion especially if employed by government or law enforcement.

I believe that the selection of this technology is the least relevant to teaching, learning, and creative inquiry than the others that made the list. If you describe learning in a broad way such as collecting information then this technology would be relevant. The Delphi approach that was used probably had a positive impact on the selection of this technology. The NMC picks an advisory board and supplies a percentage of new people every year to provide a fresh perspective. The members look at current trends and articles to select the potential technologies and narrowed in on this topic as a leading one.